Monday, January 9, 2012

Where has the Volatility Gone?

Stockmarketdouble is a journal of my attempt to double $10k in the market in less than one year. Recently, I was traveling with an investment banker from UBS and we started talking about my blog and my experiences thus far with the attempt at a double and she asked, in a surprised tone, I might add, "Is that possible?"  Now I am either really naive and/or ignorant, but for sure I think it is possible.

Let's face it, the goal of money managers is NOT to lose your money, not necessarily to make you money. But who can blame them, they get paid to hold on to your money and to make money for the institution they work for, make no mistake about this.  Well, now that I have gotten that off my chest;

Update on the STOCKMARKETDOUBLE Portfolio:

Start Date: 12/12/2011
Starting balance: $10k
Current Balance : $11,654
Gain: 17%


ON THE MARKET:
Do things seem much calmer and orderly in the market to you in the last few weeks? Why? Has anything changed that much out there or have the traders just gotten a new supply of meds?
Just asking.

Earnings season is upon us. Alcoa is always the first bellwether to report. Word on the street is that we will have a good earnings season.

A word of warning about Earnings, they are a lot like statistics in that you can skew the numbers in many different ways to present the kind of picture that best suits your purpose. If a company is increasing earnings and their revenues decline, is that really the sign of a lean, mean profit making machine?

Or is it a company that is cutting staff (customer service?) to barebones and reducing the quality of their product because it is less expensive to make? Hmm... sound familiar? I'm sure we can all rattle off 2 or 3 companies immediately that fit the description.  Beware the company that is reporting greater earnings and less revenue.

And again, please check out the Market Prediction page to see which way the market will move tomorrow.

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Under $3 Quality Stocks

Yesterday, I mentioned something about Stock Screens. I been testing out about 20 different screens. Ten of them of have at least doubled the performance of the S&P.

I been running a screen for stocks under $3 which has been doing exceptionally well. Today, I will start a simulated portfolio utilizing this screen, lets call it the under $3 quality stock. The first stock in the account will be:
AAME
Atlantic American Corp.
$1.98
microcap
industry:insurance

Reasons to buy this stock:

1.slightly above 50 day moving average
2.earnings growth... it is all about earnings growth with this company. 4 years ago, they lost $4m and 3 years ago they lost $1.2m. But then last year, they made a profit of $2.4m and looks like they will grow earnings by more than 30% in 2012 compared to 2011.
3.Price/Sales ratio is significantly lower than it competition about 40%.

Those are nice little figures, the kind I like to see.

Let me give you fair warning though, AAME and most of the other stocks to come into our "Under $3 Quality Stocks Portfolio" are designed to be held for at least a YEAR.
Volume is low and the beta can be high. The thinking here is to average into the stock. I don't worry too much about the liquidity when I first purchase it because first of all, I'm in no rush to get out of it and second when I am ready to sell, institutions have started sniffing around and volume is substantially higher or if volume is still very low, I will average out of the stock.

I will be creating a new page for "stock screens" where readers can look up the progress of our "Under $3 Quality Stocks Portfolio"

Take a look at the new Daily Market Prediction page to see whether the market will be moving higher or lower tomorrow.

Friday, January 6, 2012

Penny Stock Portfolio up 12% in 17 Days

Quick update on GEOY: ended the day at $21.92.
Update on the STOCKMARKETDOUBLE Portfolio:

Start Date: 12/12/2011
Starting balance: $10k
Current Balance : $11,518
Gain: 15%


As far as Penny Stocks; Its been about a week since we last updated our Penny Stocks Portfolio and here is where we stand:

PENNY STOCK update: ACCOUNT OPENED 12/21/11
paid
1. BIOF .57
2. DYSL $1.63
3. ACAD $1.25
4. TGC .70
5. GBNK $1.47

Current
1.BIOF .64 (12% gain)
2.DYSL $1.85 (24% gain)
3.ACAD $1.12 (8% loss)
4.TGC .84 (20% gain)
5.GBNK $1.47 (flat)

Portfolio is up 12% in 17 days.