Tuesday, April 30, 2013



3x ETF STRATEGY ONE (the first strategy I put to a test) has failed and I will no longer pursue it. See the last strategy on this page for further details. It is a LESSON on what NOT to do when trading, maybe it could stop you from making the same mistake.

The experiment enabled me to learn a great deal about how to trade the 3x etf's.  The experiment lasted only 8 trading days but it lead me to conclude that using a contrarian etf strategy may be a fruitful strategy. It appears that if a 3x ETF has a big move one day, it is highly likely that it will reverse more often than not the next trading day.

Also, I am adding another long strategy (BIG VOLUME STRATEGY).  It is a stock picking strategy based on an upsurge in volume and price.  Lets see what happens.

Look below to see the results of some experiments/strategies to find the elusive formula that doubles your portfolio in one year or less. I started this journey on April  16, 2013 with The 3x ETF Strategy One (which is now deceased).

One thing I am certain about is that, I will find at formula that has a very high success ratio.  The question is whether or not the formula can consistently perform at a high level. I have high hopes for both of the long strategies that are being tested. Long Strategy One is a pure play based on a technical set up and Long Strategy 2 is more of a momentum play. The results for the strategies are below:                           

Which strategy will work best?

designed to hold position for 3 days.
6/17-bought 683 shares of WLT at $13.63

6/11-bought 482 shares of ACAD at 18.97 (its been 18 days since the last time the setup was available for this trade)
6/14-closed position on ACAD at $19.31

5/23-bought 362 shares of HPQ at $24.86
5/29-closed position on HPQ at $25.24

5/20-bought 1132 shares of JASO at $9.56
5/23-closed position on JASO at $7.94

5/16-bought 452 shares of  CSCO at $23.89
5/20-closed position on CSCO at $23.94

5/10-bought 560 shares of WCRX at $18.01
5/16-closed position on WCRX at $19.28

5/8-bought 7415 shares of AFFY at $1.44
5/10-closed position on AFFY at $1.36

5/1-bought 2958 shares of AMD at $3.22
5/6-closed position on AMD at $3.61

4/27-bought 588 shares of JCP at $17.00
5/1-closed position on JCP at $16.20

Initial investment: $10k
Current balance: $9,307.00
7% loss
Annualized Return: -51%

this strategy is designed to hold for 1-4 weeks

6/7-bought 981 shares of NUGT at $12.06

5/30-bought  512 shares of EWV (2x etf) at $21.36
6/7-closed position on EWV at $23.11

4/24-bought 1024 shares of DGAZ at $9.77
5/30-closed position on DGAZ at $10.69

Initial Investment: $10k
Current Balance: $11,832.00
18% gain
Annualized return 153% 

this strategy can be characterized as a swing trade.

6/10-bought 589 shares of UFI at $19.81

6/7-bought 1683 shares of DGIT at $7.01
6/10-closed position on DGIT at $6.93

6/5-bought 363 shares of AIN at $31.61
6/7-closed position on AIN at $32.51

5/1-bought 1655 shares of DGIT at $6.36
6/5-closed position on DGIT at $6.94

4/29-bought 383 shares of AIN at $28.78
5/1-closed position on AIN at $27.48

4/22-DGIT-bought 1567 shares at $6.38
4/29-closed position on DGIT at $7.06

initial investment: $10k
Current Balance: $11,663.00
17% profit
Annualized Return: 127%

based on buying leaps for stocks headed to bankruptcy
this strategy is a buy and hold type strategy

4/18-AFFY, 10 January 2014 $3 contracts at $2.20 
4/18-short 1889 shares of BIOF at $4.13
-there are no options available on this stock but I am pretty certain they will go bankrupt so I'm going to include this in the strategy anyway.

initial investment in this strategy: $10k
Balance for strategy: $10,587.00
6% profit
annualized return 37%

based on technical setup.
this strategy averages 3-5 trades weekly.

6/17-bought 1365 shares of MNKD at $6.61

6/12-bought 199 shares of FSLR at $46.66
6/17-closed position on FSLR at $45.34

6/5-bought 233 shares of TSRO at $39.59
6/7-closed position on TSRO at $39.81

6/4-bought 1229 shares of ZLC at $7.49
6/5-closed position on ZLC $7.53 

5/24-bought 309 shares of VIPS at $29.53
5/30-closed position on VIPS at $29.78

5/17-bought 381 shares of UNXL at $27.19
5/24-closed position on UNXL at $23.94

5/14-bought 1571 shares of TCI at $7.58
5/17-closed position on TCI at $6.59

5/8-bought 2115 shares of ACFC at $5.87
5/14-closed position on ACFC at $5.63

5/6-bought 1205 shares of HGSH at $10.56
5/8-closed position on HGSH at $10.30

5/1-bought 2191 shares of ASTX at $6.01
5/6-closed position on ASTX at $5.81

4/29-bought 1208 shares of HGSH at $9.35
4/30-closed position on HGSH at $10.90

4/26-bought 1793 shares of STRM at $6.12
4/29=closed position on STRM at $6.30

4/24-bought 572 shares of EAC at $17.41
4/25-closed position on EAC at $19.18

4/19-bought 1818 shares HIMX at $5.50
4/24-closed HIMX position at $5.48

4/17-bought 2985 shares of EVC at $3.35
4/19-closed EVC position at $3.35

initial investment: $10k
balance: $9,022.00
10% loss
annualized return: -114% 

3 x ETF STRATEGY ONE-no longer worth pursuing
strictly a momentum play on the 3x etf
this strategy averages 3-5 trades weekly.
Conclusion: After 8 trading days, I am going to put this strategy to rest. The strategy was a simple one-buy the best performing 3 x etf of the day that traded close to a million shares a day (or more) and hold it for one day.  Basically, I wanted to see if the momentum from the previous day would carry over into the next trading day. The answer is a resounding no. This strategy lost 26% in 8 trading days.   

4/26-bought 86 shares of DUST at $90.01
4/27-closed position on DUST at $86.16

4/25-bought 694 shares of USLV at $11.72
4/26-closed USLV position at $11.14

4/24-bought 612 shares of NUGT at 12.85
4/25-closed NUGT position at $13.29

4/23-bought 92 shares of DUST at $105.15
4/24-closed DUST position at $85.47

4/22-bought 1027 shares dgaz at $9.17
4/23-closed position on DGAZ at $9.43

4/19-bought 157 shares of TQQQ at $58.26
4/22-closed position on TQQQ at $60.14

4/18-bought 828 shares of NUGT at $10.63
4/19-closed position on NUGT at $11.05

4/17-bought  82 shares of DUST at $118.19
4/18-closed  position on DUST at $107.33

4/16-bought 938 shares of USLV at $10.66
4/17-closed position on USLV at $10.34

initial investment: $10k
balance: $7410.00
loss 26%
annualized return: -845%

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